高可预测性公司榜
根据价值大师独创的可预测性评级指标,精选出长期回报更佳的股票。
什么是可预测性评级
价值大师对沃伦·巴菲特 (Warren Buffett) “以合理价格买入优质公司”的策略,在1998年至2008年间的表现进行了回测研究;价值大师着重研究了巴菲特看好的公司,发现这些公司具有可预测性高且收益稳定等特点。
通过这项研究,价值大师提出了公司可预测性评级的概念。如下表所示,企业的可预测评级与股票的长期回报之间存在很强的相关性。
可预测性评级 | 5颗星 | 4.5颗星 | 4颗星 | 3.5颗星 | 3颗星 | 2.5颗星 | 2颗星 | 1颗星 | 全部公司 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
年化平均收益 | 12.1% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
十年期间亏损的 公司数量百分比% | 3% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 11% | 18% | 16% | 45% | 37% |
可以清楚地看到,具有高可预测性评级的公司,其股票表现更佳,长期持有出现亏损的可能性也大幅下降。
如何按照高可预测性公司榜投资
1. 选择市值最大的前25个股票
2. 把要投入的资金以同等的比重(4%)投入每个股票
3. 任何时候开始都可以,每年年初更新一次
贵州茅台 |
¥1708.02
|
18.60%
|
16.40%
|
18.30%
|
¥21,456.11亿
|
30.13
|
1.84
|
¥1601.01
|
-6.68
|
1,808.60
|
5.56
|
1,593.54
|
-7.18%
|
1.52%
| |||
中国移动 |
¥103.18
|
-1.60%
|
3.20%
|
9.60%
|
¥13,235.52亿
|
16.67
|
5.21
|
¥71.47
|
-44.37
|
63.05
|
-63.65
|
64.32
|
-60.42%
|
4.07%
| |||
比亚迪 |
¥216.80
|
28.90%
|
20.00%
|
147.40%
|
¥6,082.27亿
|
21.99
|
1.02
|
¥332.31
|
34.76
|
53.78
|
-303.12
|
110.45
|
-96.29%
|
0.54%
| |||
美的集团 |
¥62.60
|
10.60%
|
8.80%
|
17.80%
|
¥4,363.14亿
|
13.04
|
1.48
|
¥128.84
|
51.41
|
92.42
|
32.27
|
75.08
|
16.62%
|
3.99%
| |||
海康威视 |
¥33.32
|
23.70%
|
9.60%
|
-4.20%
|
¥3,108.96亿
|
24.13
|
2.33
|
¥46.5
|
28.34
|
39.19
|
14.98
|
41.85
|
20.38%
|
2.10%
| |||
恒瑞医药 |
¥45.97
|
14.70%
|
2.10%
|
49.10%
|
¥2,932.43亿
|
69.65
|
31.86
|
¥17.09
|
-168.99
|
3.02
|
-1,422.19
|
8.68
|
-429.61%
|
0.34%
| |||
万华化学 |
¥78.58
|
17.30%
|
8.10%
|
-16.30%
|
¥2,467.21亿
|
16.10
|
1.99
|
¥152.53
|
48.48
|
-27.37
|
387.10
|
137.28
|
42.76%
|
2.04%
| |||
海天味业 |
¥40.71
|
17.30%
|
13.40%
|
-10.40%
|
¥2,263.72亿
|
38.51
|
2.93
|
¥28.36
|
-43.55
|
15.72
|
-158.97
|
22.77
|
-78.79%
|
1.69%
| |||
牧原股份 |
¥40.48
|
55.30%
|
69.00%
|
360.40%
|
¥2,212.37亿
|
22.24
|
0.32
|
¥56.88
|
28.83
|
1.79
|
-2,161.45
|
51.19
|
20.92%
|
1.80%
| |||
中国建筑 |
¥5.19
|
13.80%
|
11.70%
|
-11.60%
|
¥2,160.08亿
|
4.22
|
0.30
|
¥28
|
81.46
|
7.43
|
30.15
|
27.49
|
81.12%
|
4.87%
| |||
格力电器 |
¥38.28
|
13.50%
|
3.10%
|
-4.70%
|
¥2,155.70亿
|
8.04
|
2.47
|
¥96.58
|
60.36
|
83.40
|
54.10
|
85.77
|
55.37%
|
5.21%
| |||
立讯精密 |
¥29.46
|
39.40%
|
46.00%
|
3.00%
|
¥2,112.43亿
|
20.89
|
0.40
|
¥50.66
|
41.85
|
7.99
|
-268.71
|
45.59
|
35.38%
|
0.45%
| |||
国电南瑞 |
¥24.33
|
12.10%
|
11.70%
|
14.80%
|
¥1,954.39亿
|
28.03
|
2.32
|
¥15.57
|
-56.26
|
10.99
|
-121.38
|
25.26
|
3.68%
|
1.63%
| |||
顺丰控股 |
¥38.51
|
33.70%
|
22.80%
|
-9.20%
|
¥1,885.14亿
|
23.48
|
0.99
|
¥53.44
|
27.94
|
111.09
|
65.33
|
18.59
|
-107.15%
|
0.64%
| |||
伊利股份 |
¥29.09
|
16.80%
|
12.40%
|
25.10%
|
¥1,851.90亿
|
17.21
|
1.32
|
¥38.42
|
24.28
|
17.67
|
-64.63
|
50.01
|
41.83%
|
3.58%
| |||
中国中免 |
¥87.50
|
25.30%
|
23.50%
|
-25.00%
|
¥1,792.53亿
|
32.56
|
1.26
|
¥92.47
|
5.37
|
65.89
|
-32.80
|
83.22
|
-5.14%
|
0.90%
| |||
汇川技术 |
¥62.94
|
26.50%
|
33.00%
|
20.60%
|
¥1,684.73亿
|
36.81
|
0.97
|
¥61.34
|
-2.61
|
10.75
|
-485.49
|
28.67
|
-119.53%
|
0.57%
| |||
隆基绿能 |
¥21.15
|
62.50%
|
32.70%
|
20.80%
|
¥1,602.76亿
|
10.42
|
0.25
|
¥81.13
|
73.93
|
16.13
|
-31.12
|
73.01
|
71.03%
|
1.89%
| |||
洋河股份 |
¥104.25
|
4.80%
|
4.20%
|
12.70%
|
¥1,570.47亿
|
14.94
|
3.45
|
¥83.01
|
-25.59
|
165.34
|
36.95
|
124.88
|
16.52%
|
3.60%
| |||
阳光电源 |
¥105.55
|
35.60%
|
29.30%
|
356.60%
|
¥1,567.58亿
|
17.92
|
0.56
|
¥200.88
|
47.46
|
46.84
|
-125.34
|
180.79
|
41.62%
|
0.21%
| |||
北方华创 |
¥295.08
|
--
|
42.60%
|
58.50%
|
¥1,564.79亿
|
44.13
|
1.01
|
¥213.59
|
-38.15
|
-30.85
|
1,056.50
|
192.23
|
-53.50%
|
0.15%
| |||
兖矿能源 |
¥23.69
|
29.00%
|
27.40%
|
-40.20%
|
¥1,542.26亿
|
10.18
|
0.34
|
¥79.81
|
70.32
|
34.84
|
32.00
|
71.83
|
67.02%
|
12.97%
| |||
中国中铁 |
¥6.77
|
11.90%
|
10.90%
|
-1.10%
|
¥1,540.82亿
|
5.46
|
0.41
|
¥26.03
|
73.99
|
-15.94
|
142.47
|
32.27
|
79.02%
|
2.94%
| |||
京东方A |
¥4.04
|
33.70%
|
17.10%
|
-115.10%
|
¥1,509.06亿
|
48.67
|
2.68
|
¥1.02
|
-296.08
|
2.65
|
-52.45
|
2.48
|
-62.90%
|
1.52%
| |||
片仔癀 |
¥236.08
|
24.00%
|
25.60%
|
16.90%
|
¥1,424.31亿
|
50.34
|
1.94
|
¥148.34
|
-59.15
|
55.95
|
-321.95
|
133.51
|
-76.83%
|
0.52%
| |||
中际旭创 |
¥173.81
|
--
|
20.00%
|
49.70%
|
¥1,395.39亿
|
83.16
|
3.62
|
¥75
|
-131.75
|
21.68
|
-701.71
|
67.50
|
-157.50%
|
0.11%
| |||
爱尔眼科 |
¥13.80
|
31.50%
|
22.60%
|
12.20%
|
¥1,287.32亿
|
37.70
|
1.51
|
¥12.66
|
-9.00
|
15.09
|
8.55
|
11.39
|
-21.16%
|
0.73%
| |||
古井贡酒 |
¥256.89
|
19.40%
|
16.10%
|
53.60%
|
¥1,173.90亿
|
31.33
|
1.96
|
¥221.42
|
-16.02
|
37.50
|
-585.04
|
229.44
|
-11.96%
|
1.15%
| |||
科大讯飞 |
¥50.50
|
24.10%
|
16.30%
|
-50.50%
|
¥1,169.26亿
|
531.58
|
19.12
|
¥2.68
|
-1,784.33
|
-7.42
|
780.59
|
3.41
|
-1,380.94%
|
0.20%
| |||
海螺水泥 |
¥23.20
|
15.90%
|
1.50%
|
-53.70%
|
¥1,136.33亿
|
10.27
|
7.03
|
¥55.12
|
57.91
|
-9.75
|
337.95
|
61.90
|
62.52%
|
6.39%
| |||
龙源电力 |
¥18.97
|
9.70%
|
5.30%
|
-5.30%
|
¥1,127.22亿
|
28.06
|
4.21
|
¥13.89
|
-36.57
|
-35.22
|
153.86
|
8.83
|
-114.84%
|
0.62%
| |||
保利发展 |
¥9.32
|
11.40%
|
8.30%
|
-28.60%
|
¥1,115.65亿
|
6.05
|
0.71
|
¥25.2
|
63.02
|
41.72
|
77.66
|
38.69
|
75.91%
|
4.83%
| |||
荣盛石化 |
¥10.89
|
69.70%
|
50.70%
|
-102.70%
|
¥1,102.67亿
|
亏损
|
--
|
¥-6.78
|
260.62
|
-49.06
|
122.20
|
-6.10
|
278.52%
|
1.37%
| |||
福耀玻璃 |
¥42.35
|
4.70%
|
4.90%
|
20.30%
|
¥1,059.78亿
|
19.61
|
3.82
|
¥23
|
-84.13
|
22.45
|
-88.64
|
24.20
|
-75.00%
|
2.94%
| |||
中国铁建 |
¥8.41
|
10.20%
|
8.80%
|
4.70%
|
¥1,059.37亿
|
4.62
|
0.35
|
¥36.82
|
77.16
|
-20.97
|
140.10
|
37.55
|
77.60%
|
3.34%
| |||
双汇发展 |
¥28.58
|
6.60%
|
2.70%
|
14.10%
|
¥990.20亿
|
16.83
|
5.99
|
¥21.06
|
-35.71
|
10.74
|
-166.11
|
49.70
|
42.49%
|
6.15%
| |||
三花智控 |
¥25.21
|
16.20%
|
14.70%
|
36.90%
|
¥940.99亿
|
29.66
|
2.25
|
¥21.97
|
-14.75
|
1.51
|
-1,569.54
|
21.43
|
-17.64%
|
1.01%
| |||
云南白药 |
¥51.27
|
7.40%
|
2.40%
|
-20.00%
|
¥921.25亿
|
19.20
|
8.09
|
¥30.48
|
-68.21
|
50.29
|
-1.95
|
74.28
|
30.98%
|
2.92%
| |||
中国电建 |
¥5.11
|
7.80%
|
10.90%
|
3.60%
|
¥880.26亿
|
7.80
|
0.50
|
¥10.92
|
53.21
|
-34.99
|
114.60
|
9.83
|
48.02%
|
2.35%
| |||
亿纬锂能 |
¥41.60
|
21.20%
|
46.70%
|
80.50%
|
¥851.02亿
|
19.90
|
0.38
|
¥72.38
|
42.53
|
-6.79
|
712.67
|
24.06
|
-72.90%
|
0.38%
|