高可预测性公司榜
根据价值大师独创的可预测性评级指标，精选出长期回报更佳的股票。
什么是可预测性评级
价值大师对沃伦·巴菲特 (Warren Buffett) “以合理价格买入优质公司”的策略，在1998年至2008年间的表现进行了回测研究；价值大师着重研究了巴菲特看好的公司，发现这些公司具有可预测性高且收益稳定等特点。
通过这项研究，价值大师提出了公司可预测性评级的概念。如下表所示，企业的可预测评级与股票的长期回报之间存在很强的相关性。
| 可预测性评级 | 5颗星 | 4.5颗星 | 4颗星 | 3.5颗星 | 3颗星 | 2.5颗星 | 2颗星 | 1颗星 *不可预测 | 全部公司 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
年化平均收益 （1998年1月 - 2008年8月） | 12.1% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
十年期间亏损的 公司数量百分比% | 3% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 11% | 18% | 16% | 45% | 37% |
可以清楚地看到，具有高可预测性评级的公司，其股票表现更佳，长期持有出现亏损的可能性也大幅下降。
如何按照高可预测性公司榜投资
1. 选择市值最大的前25个股票
2. 把要投入的资金以同等的比重（4%）投入每个股票
3. 任何时候开始都可以，每年年初更新一次
| 贵州茅台 |
¥1709.43
|
19.20%
|
14.80%
|
17.80%
|
¥21,473.82亿
|
28.73
|
1.94
|
¥1796.99
|
4.87
|
1,591.47
|
-7.41
|
1,672.49
|
-2.21%
|
1.53%
| |||
| 中国移动 |
¥103.66
|
-0.10%
|
3.20%
|
8.40%
|
¥14,397.59亿
|
16.67
|
5.18
|
¥72.24
|
-43.49
|
25.81
|
-301.63
|
65.02
|
-59.43%
|
4.03%
| |||
| 比亚迪 |
¥219.37
|
28.20%
|
38.00%
|
67.20%
|
¥6,139.60亿
|
21.26
|
0.51
|
¥353.44
|
37.93
|
296.47
|
26.01
|
318.09
|
31.04%
|
0.55%
| |||
| 美的集团 |
¥68.37
|
11.50%
|
8.50%
|
14.90%
|
¥4,766.59亿
|
13.91
|
1.60
|
¥121.86
|
43.89
|
106.24
|
35.65
|
92.15
|
25.81%
|
3.66%
| |||
| 紫金矿业 |
¥18.27
|
24.00%
|
31.20%
|
7.90%
|
¥4,697.00亿
|
21.84
|
0.68
|
¥26.69
|
31.55
|
6.06
|
-201.49
|
12.72
|
-43.63%
|
1.44%
| |||
| 海康威视 |
¥32.87
|
18.50%
|
6.20%
|
19.90%
|
¥3,066.97亿
|
21.43
|
3.21
|
¥38.08
|
13.68
|
39.09
|
15.91
|
46.35
|
29.08%
|
2.14%
| |||
| 万华化学 |
¥86.74
|
16.10%
|
12.40%
|
13.00%
|
¥2,723.42亿
|
16.11
|
1.30
|
¥168.28
|
48.45
|
-65.56
|
232.31
|
151.45
|
42.73%
|
1.92%
| |||
| 牧原股份 |
¥44.44
|
55.30%
|
69.00%
|
360.40%
|
¥2,428.80亿
|
24.42
|
0.35
|
¥56.88
|
21.87
|
1.79
|
-2,382.68
|
51.19
|
13.19%
|
1.67%
| |||
| 中国建筑 |
¥5.35
|
12.30%
|
8.20%
|
6.90%
|
¥2,226.67亿
|
4.08
|
0.40
|
¥27.24
|
80.36
|
-5.79
|
192.40
|
25.68
|
79.17%
|
4.78%
| |||
| 格力电器 |
¥39.50
|
13.50%
|
3.10%
|
-4.70%
|
¥2,224.41亿
|
8.29
|
2.54
|
¥96.58
|
59.10
|
83.40
|
52.64
|
85.77
|
53.95%
|
2.57%
| |||
| 海天味业 |
¥38.84
|
17.30%
|
13.40%
|
-10.40%
|
¥2,159.74亿
|
36.75
|
2.79
|
¥28.36
|
-36.95
|
15.72
|
-147.07
|
22.77
|
-70.58%
|
1.84%
| |||
| 立讯精密 |
¥28.79
|
39.40%
|
46.00%
|
3.00%
|
¥2,066.55亿
|
17.77
|
0.33
|
¥59.34
|
51.48
|
20.76
|
-38.68
|
53.41
|
46.10%
|
0.46%
| |||
| 国电南瑞 |
¥24.10
|
12.10%
|
11.70%
|
14.80%
|
¥1,935.91亿
|
27.76
|
2.29
|
¥15.57
|
-54.78
|
10.99
|
-119.29
|
25.26
|
4.59%
|
1.55%
| |||
| 伊利股份 |
¥28.01
|
16.80%
|
12.40%
|
25.10%
|
¥1,783.14亿
|
16.57
|
1.27
|
¥38.42
|
27.10
|
17.67
|
-58.52
|
50.01
|
43.99%
|
3.70%
| |||
| 顺丰控股 |
¥36.34
|
31.10%
|
14.40%
|
-6.90%
|
¥1,778.92亿
|
21.38
|
1.46
|
¥54.03
|
32.74
|
33.71
|
-7.80
|
23.33
|
-55.77%
|
0.69%
| |||
| 北方华创 |
¥313.66
|
--
|
42.60%
|
58.50%
|
¥1,663.32亿
|
46.91
|
1.08
|
¥213.59
|
-46.85
|
-30.85
|
1,116.73
|
192.23
|
-63.17%
|
0.15%
| |||
| 京东方A |
¥4.37
|
1.40%
|
14.00%
|
6.80%
|
¥1,631.55亿
|
68.28
|
4.52
|
¥0.8
|
-446.25
|
2.85
|
-53.33
|
1.94
|
-125.26%
|
1.41%
| |||
| 中国中铁 |
¥6.98
|
11.80%
|
10.60%
|
16.30%
|
¥1,594.71亿
|
5.38
|
0.38
|
¥26.9
|
74.05
|
-7.66
|
191.12
|
34.23
|
79.61%
|
2.88%
| |||
| 汇川技术 |
¥59.29
|
25.50%
|
36.10%
|
27.00%
|
¥1,587.27亿
|
32.91
|
0.85
|
¥59.81
|
0.87
|
16.05
|
-269.41
|
24.82
|
-138.88%
|
0.63%
| |||
| 中国中免 |
¥74.26
|
22.30%
|
10.20%
|
1.80%
|
¥1,524.22亿
|
22.76
|
2.08
|
¥109.13
|
31.95
|
168.19
|
55.85
|
98.21
|
24.39%
|
1.11%
| |||
| 洋河股份 |
¥100.09
|
4.80%
|
4.20%
|
12.70%
|
¥1,507.80亿
|
14.35
|
3.31
|
¥83.01
|
-20.58
|
165.34
|
39.46
|
124.88
|
19.85%
|
3.80%
| |||
| 中际旭创 |
¥184.86
|
--
|
15.90%
|
104.60%
|
¥1,484.10亿
|
49.73
|
2.97
|
¥122.56
|
-50.83
|
-4.52
|
4,189.82
|
110.31
|
-67.58%
|
0.12%
| |||
| 阳光电源 |
¥99.27
|
36.50%
|
55.40%
|
135.30%
|
¥1,474.31亿
|
14.67
|
0.23
|
¥241.94
|
58.97
|
96.72
|
-2.64
|
217.74
|
54.41%
|
0.23%
| |||
| 隆基绿能 |
¥18.62
|
62.50%
|
32.70%
|
20.80%
|
¥1,411.03亿
|
9.17
|
0.22
|
¥81.13
|
77.05
|
16.13
|
-15.44
|
73.01
|
74.50%
|
2.19%
| |||
| 片仔癀 |
¥225.69
|
25.00%
|
21.00%
|
18.00%
|
¥1,361.63亿
|
45.37
|
2.15
|
¥156.41
|
-44.29
|
102.13
|
-120.98
|
140.77
|
-60.33%
|
0.57%
| |||
| 上港集团 |
¥5.63
|
2.80%
|
6.70%
|
1.60%
|
¥1,310.90亿
|
9.91
|
1.42
|
¥10.03
|
43.87
|
2.89
|
-94.81
|
6.13
|
8.16%
|
2.45%
| |||
| 福耀玻璃 |
¥49.23
|
5.30%
|
7.20%
|
31.70%
|
¥1,251.36亿
|
22.78
|
3.02
|
¥26.14
|
-88.33
|
14.40
|
-241.87
|
26.62
|
-84.94%
|
2.79%
| |||
| 古井贡酒 |
¥264.50
|
19.40%
|
16.10%
|
53.60%
|
¥1,204.46亿
|
32.26
|
2.01
|
¥221.42
|
-19.46
|
37.50
|
-605.33
|
229.44
|
-15.28%
|
1.16%
| |||
| 爱尔眼科 |
¥12.63
|
31.50%
|
22.60%
|
12.20%
|
¥1,178.18亿
|
34.51
|
1.38
|
¥12.66
|
0.24
|
15.09
|
16.30
|
11.39
|
-10.89%
|
0.82%
| |||
| 荣盛石化 |
¥11.15
|
69.70%
|
50.70%
|
-102.70%
|
¥1,129.00亿
|
亏损
|
--
|
¥-6.78
|
264.45
|
-49.06
|
122.73
|
-6.10
|
282.79%
|
1.37%
| |||
| 中国铁建 |
¥8.63
|
10.10%
|
7.50%
|
6.90%
|
¥1,091.29亿
|
4.99
|
0.45
|
¥34.15
|
74.73
|
-10.76
|
180.20
|
34.82
|
75.22%
|
3.27%
| |||
| 龙源电力 |
¥17.93
|
9.20%
|
2.90%
|
3.50%
|
¥1,079.63亿
|
24.47
|
6.66
|
¥15.66
|
-14.50
|
-10.92
|
264.19
|
9.57
|
-87.36%
|
0.65%
| |||
| 科大讯飞 |
¥44.35
|
18.90%
|
6.60%
|
62.80%
|
¥1,026.87亿
|
253.43
|
22.18
|
¥3.5
|
-1,167.14
|
-19.15
|
331.59
|
4.76
|
-831.72%
|
0.23%
| |||
| 云南白药 |
¥55.33
|
4.60%
|
1.80%
|
-18.20%
|
¥987.23亿
|
24.29
|
13.36
|
¥26.58
|
-108.16
|
38.76
|
-42.75
|
64.77
|
14.57%
|
2.75%
| |||
| 双汇发展 |
¥27.00
|
4.30%
|
0.90%
|
-2.50%
|
¥935.46亿
|
19.35
|
19.89
|
¥17.4
|
-55.17
|
9.59
|
-181.54
|
26.36
|
-2.43%
|
6.39%
| |||
| 中国电建 |
¥5.16
|
7.80%
|
10.90%
|
3.60%
|
¥888.87亿
|
7.88
|
0.50
|
¥10.92
|
52.75
|
-34.99
|
114.75
|
9.83
|
47.51%
|
2.35%
| |||
| 万泰生物 |
¥68.26
|
41.80%
|
58.60%
|
-71.30%
|
¥865.68亿
|
68.95
|
0.90
|
¥40.53
|
-68.42
|
9.47
|
-620.80
|
13.47
|
-406.76%
|
1.58%
| |||
| 智飞生物 |
¥34.83
|
72.60%
|
45.60%
|
-0.50%
|
¥833.76亿
|
11.12
|
0.22
|
¥106.28
|
67.23
|
60.59
|
42.52
|
95.65
|
63.59%
|
1.46%
| |||
| 海大集团 |
¥50.00
|
22.50%
|
20.10%
|
-4.50%
|
¥831.87亿
|
25.96
|
1.20
|
¥65.06
|
23.15
|
46.38
|
-7.81
|
30.81
|
-62.28%
|
0.90%
| |||
| 三花智控 |
¥22.16
|
16.20%
|
14.70%
|
36.90%
|
¥827.15亿
|
26.07
|
1.98
|
¥21.97
|
-0.86
|
1.51
|
-1,367.55
|
21.43
|
-3.41%
|
1.14%
|