高可预测性公司榜
根据价值大师独创的可预测性评级指标,精选出长期回报更佳的股票。
什么是可预测性评级
价值大师对沃伦·巴菲特 (Warren Buffett) “以合理价格买入优质公司”的策略,在1998年至2008年间的表现进行了回测研究;价值大师着重研究了巴菲特看好的公司,发现这些公司具有可预测性高且收益稳定等特点。
通过这项研究,价值大师提出了公司可预测性评级的概念。如下表所示,企业的可预测评级与股票的长期回报之间存在很强的相关性。
可预测性评级 | 5颗星 | 4.5颗星 | 4颗星 | 3.5颗星 | 3颗星 | 2.5颗星 | 2颗星 | 1颗星 *不可预测 | 全部公司 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
年化平均收益 (1998年1月 - 2008年8月) | 12.1% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
十年期间亏损的 公司数量百分比% | 3% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 11% | 18% | 16% | 45% | 37% |
可以清楚地看到,具有高可预测性评级的公司,其股票表现更佳,长期持有出现亏损的可能性也大幅下降。
如何按照高可预测性公司榜投资
1. 选择市值最大的前25个股票
2. 把要投入的资金以同等的比重(4%)投入每个股票
3. 任何时候开始都可以,每年年初更新一次
贵州茅台 |
¥1747.07
|
19.40%
|
23.30%
|
15.40%
|
¥21,946.65亿
|
39.37
|
1.69
|
¥1585.27
|
-10.21
|
1,676.50
|
-4.21
|
1.10%
| |||
比亚迪 |
¥267.56
|
26.60%
|
6.40%
|
-43.10%
|
¥7,789.05亿
|
212.35
|
33.18
|
¥47.89
|
-458.70
|
144.99
|
-84.54
|
0.05%
| |||
中国平安 |
¥43.29
|
--
|
12.50%
|
--
|
¥7,658.18亿
|
8.08
|
0.65
|
¥203.73
|
78.75
|
202.24
|
78.59
|
5.27%
| |||
中国人寿 |
¥25.06
|
--
|
17.40%
|
--
|
¥5,933.71亿
|
13.92
|
0.80
|
¥36.75
|
31.81
|
134.71
|
81.40
|
2.56%
| |||
长江电力 |
¥23.04
|
7.60%
|
1.60%
|
-4.10%
|
¥5,239.72亿
|
19.75
|
12.34
|
¥21.2
|
-8.68
|
24.70
|
6.72
|
3.04%
| |||
隆基股份 |
¥68.28
|
56.30%
|
36.60%
|
4.20%
|
¥3,695.96亿
|
39.93
|
1.09
|
¥23.17
|
-194.69
|
21.99
|
-210.50
|
0.26%
| |||
海天味业 |
¥73.71
|
19.90%
|
19.60%
|
-4.30%
|
¥3,415.60亿
|
50.91
|
2.60
|
¥55.04
|
-33.92
|
32.46
|
-127.08
|
1.04%
| |||
中国中免 |
¥173.33
|
28.30%
|
40.20%
|
-4.00%
|
¥3,384.23亿
|
36.11
|
0.90
|
¥182.41
|
4.98
|
31.52
|
-449.90
|
0.57%
| |||
海康威视 |
¥32.52
|
29.40%
|
16.00%
|
11.80%
|
¥3,067.68亿
|
17.91
|
1.12
|
¥69.06
|
52.91
|
30.18
|
-7.75
|
2.45%
| |||
牧原股份 |
¥50.94
|
48.00%
|
59.40%
|
-110.30%
|
¥2,711.07亿
|
亏损
|
--
|
¥-40.29
|
226.43
|
-39.60
|
228.64
|
2.05%
| |||
万华化学 |
¥82.09
|
19.10%
|
15.60%
|
56.90%
|
¥2,577.42亿
|
11.02
|
0.71
|
¥283.05
|
71.00
|
10.18
|
-706.39
|
3.05%
| |||
中国建筑 |
¥5.85
|
15.30%
|
15.10%
|
16.10%
|
¥2,453.54亿
|
4.56
|
0.30
|
¥31.92
|
81.67
|
-30.46
|
119.21
|
3.68%
| |||
伊利股份 |
¥37.50
|
19.20%
|
10.70%
|
7.70%
|
¥2,400.05亿
|
24.83
|
2.32
|
¥40.63
|
7.70
|
18.48
|
-102.92
|
2.19%
| |||
顺丰控股 |
¥48.82
|
33.10%
|
18.00%
|
29.80%
|
¥2,389.84亿
|
35.90
|
1.99
|
¥51.69
|
5.55
|
7.44
|
-556.18
|
0.67%
| |||
洋河股份 |
¥156.80
|
4.50%
|
4.20%
|
32.40%
|
¥2,362.96亿
|
27.29
|
6.50
|
¥83.85
|
-87.00
|
225.28
|
30.40
|
1.91%
| |||
海尔智家 |
¥25.57
|
9.00%
|
5.60%
|
-7.10%
|
¥2,294.64亿
|
17.63
|
3.15
|
¥27.62
|
7.42
|
27.99
|
8.65
|
1.42%
| |||
万科A |
¥18.86
|
16.70%
|
9.50%
|
-25.80%
|
¥2,128.32亿
|
9.65
|
1.02
|
¥45.43
|
58.49
|
-41.67
|
145.26
|
6.64%
| |||
立讯精密 |
¥29.71
|
37.50%
|
48.00%
|
8.80%
|
¥2,104.75亿
|
28.29
|
0.59
|
¥39.91
|
25.56
|
-9.76
|
404.41
|
0.37%
| |||
保利发展 |
¥17.09
|
15.20%
|
18.80%
|
-0.80%
|
¥2,045.72亿
|
7.46
|
0.40
|
¥57.9
|
70.48
|
1.23
|
-1,289.43
|
4.27%
| |||
格力电器 |
¥33.27
|
18.40%
|
7.70%
|
3.90%
|
¥1,967.74亿
|
8.05
|
1.05
|
¥116.92
|
71.54
|
7.91
|
-320.61
|
12.02%
| |||
恒瑞医药 |
¥29.58
|
19.60%
|
12.60%
|
-43.90%
|
¥1,886.91亿
|
44.14
|
3.50
|
¥25.47
|
-16.14
|
4.51
|
-555.88
|
0.57%
| |||
爱尔眼科 |
¥34.61
|
34.70%
|
34.60%
|
2.80%
|
¥1,876.44亿
|
75.72
|
2.19
|
¥17.37
|
-99.25
|
7.24
|
-378.04
|
0.33%
| |||
国电南瑞 |
¥33.21
|
13.00%
|
9.60%
|
11.60%
|
¥1,852.74亿
|
31.63
|
3.29
|
¥20.71
|
-60.36
|
10.66
|
-211.54
|
1.05%
| |||
中国太保 |
¥20.71
|
--
|
10.90%
|
--
|
¥1,817.33亿
|
8.39
|
0.77
|
¥66.46
|
68.84
|
235.06
|
91.19
|
5.78%
| |||
片仔癀 |
¥299.20
|
23.00%
|
32.20%
|
48.60%
|
¥1,805.13亿
|
70.73
|
2.20
|
¥160.78
|
-86.09
|
4.36
|
-6,762.39
|
0.29%
| |||
中国中铁 |
¥6.86
|
12.80%
|
10.30%
|
5.20%
|
¥1,605.08亿
|
6.27
|
0.61
|
¥25.61
|
73.21
|
-25.18
|
127.24
|
2.63%
| |||
汇川技术 |
¥56.49
|
24.60%
|
25.30%
|
-1.50%
|
¥1,489.24亿
|
41.23
|
1.63
|
¥52.07
|
-8.49
|
2.85
|
-1,882.11
|
0.42%
| |||
赣锋锂业 |
¥108.05
|
44.30%
|
28.30%
|
415.90%
|
¥1,462.83亿
|
18.59
|
0.66
|
¥220.83
|
51.07
|
4.84
|
-2,132.44
|
0.28%
| |||
荣盛石化 |
¥14.22
|
52.80%
|
55.30%
|
61.50%
|
¥1,439.85亿
|
10.78
|
0.19
|
¥17.89
|
20.51
|
-1.19
|
1,294.96
|
0.72%
| |||
亿纬锂能 |
¥75.32
|
17.80%
|
51.00%
|
-0.50%
|
¥1,430.17亿
|
51.24
|
1.00
|
¥55.87
|
-34.81
|
-37.23
|
302.31
|
0.03%
| |||
中环股份 |
¥39.75
|
33.90%
|
39.00%
|
127.80%
|
¥1,284.61亿
|
25.74
|
0.66
|
¥20.92
|
-90.01
|
-20.68
|
292.21
|
0.15%
| |||
歌尔股份 |
¥35.12
|
12.60%
|
16.50%
|
21.80%
|
¥1,199.81亿
|
27.88
|
1.69
|
¥27.75
|
-26.56
|
8.50
|
-313.18
|
0.43%
| |||
紫光国微 |
¥189.50
|
27.00%
|
37.30%
|
89.50%
|
¥1,150.00亿
|
53.26
|
1.43
|
¥135.24
|
-40.12
|
14.89
|
-1,172.67
|
0.07%
| |||
东方雨虹 |
¥45.49
|
35.60%
|
34.00%
|
-15.70%
|
¥1,146.18亿
|
26.76
|
0.79
|
¥64.62
|
29.60
|
-26.26
|
273.23
|
0.66%
| |||
云南白药 |
¥62.95
|
8.30%
|
2.00%
|
-12.00%
|
¥1,130.72亿
|
38.49
|
19.25
|
¥27.92
|
-125.47
|
35.03
|
-79.70
|
2.54%
| |||
阳光电源 |
¥73.77
|
30.50%
|
23.40%
|
-15.70%
|
¥1,095.64亿
|
67.70
|
2.89
|
¥41.43
|
-78.06
|
-24.84
|
396.98
|
0.20%
| |||
中国电建 |
¥7.07
|
5.60%
|
8.40%
|
-3.50%
|
¥1,081.64亿
|
13.97
|
1.66
|
¥6.86
|
-3.06
|
-19.72
|
135.85
|
1.32%
| |||
复星医药 |
¥44.37
|
17.50%
|
10.10%
|
-8.30%
|
¥1,049.68亿
|
26.10
|
2.58
|
¥31.74
|
-39.79
|
-5.94
|
846.97
|
0.97%
| |||
海大集团 |
¥62.64
|
21.20%
|
18.00%
|
-50.20%
|
¥1,040.55亿
|
96.37
|
5.35
|
¥24.37
|
-157.04
|
-19.96
|
413.83
|
0.50%
| |||
中国铁建 |
¥8.25
|
10.20%
|
8.50%
|
25.00%
|
¥1,039.57亿
|
4.99
|
0.59
|
¥29.43
|
71.97
|
-28.70
|
128.75
|
2.79%
|