高可预测性公司榜
根据价值大师独创的可预测性评级指标，精选出长期回报更佳的股票。
什么是可预测性评级
价值大师对沃伦·巴菲特 (Warren Buffett) “以合理价格买入优质公司”的策略，在1998年至2008年间的表现进行了回测研究；价值大师着重研究了巴菲特看好的公司，发现这些公司具有可预测性高且收益稳定等特点。
通过这项研究，价值大师提出了公司可预测性评级的概念。如下表所示，企业的可预测评级与股票的长期回报之间存在很强的相关性。
| 可预测性评级 | 5颗星 | 4.5颗星 | 4颗星 | 3.5颗星 | 3颗星 | 2.5颗星 | 2颗星 | 1颗星 *不可预测 | 全部公司 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
年化平均收益 （1998年1月 - 2008年8月） | 12.1% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
十年期间亏损的 公司数量百分比% | 3% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 11% | 18% | 16% | 45% | 37% |
可以清楚地看到，具有高可预测性评级的公司，其股票表现更佳，长期持有出现亏损的可能性也大幅下降。
如何按照高可预测性公司榜投资
1. 选择市值最大的前25个股票
2. 把要投入的资金以同等的比重（4%）投入每个股票
3. 任何时候开始都可以，每年年初更新一次
| 贵州茅台 |
¥1693.60
|
19.20%
|
14.80%
|
17.80%
|
¥21,274.97亿
|
28.47
|
1.92
|
¥1796.99
|
5.75
|
1,591.47
|
-6.42
|
1,672.49
|
-1.26%
|
1.55%
| |||
| 中国移动 |
¥104.85
|
-0.10%
|
3.20%
|
6.70%
|
¥14,136.19亿
|
16.86
|
5.42
|
¥69.79
|
-50.24
|
25.81
|
-306.24
|
62.81
|
-66.93%
|
3.95%
| |||
| 比亚迪 |
¥207.42
|
28.20%
|
38.00%
|
67.20%
|
¥5,788.95亿
|
20.10
|
0.48
|
¥353.44
|
41.31
|
296.47
|
30.04
|
318.09
|
34.79%
|
0.55%
| |||
| 美的集团 |
¥67.90
|
11.50%
|
8.50%
|
14.90%
|
¥4,733.83亿
|
13.80
|
1.59
|
¥121.86
|
44.28
|
106.24
|
36.09
|
92.15
|
26.32%
|
3.60%
| |||
| 紫金矿业 |
¥17.54
|
24.00%
|
31.20%
|
5.00%
|
¥4,503.40亿
|
21.11
|
0.66
|
¥25.69
|
31.72
|
7.69
|
-128.09
|
12.25
|
-43.18%
|
1.36%
| |||
| 海康威视 |
¥32.51
|
18.50%
|
6.20%
|
19.90%
|
¥3,033.38亿
|
21.22
|
3.18
|
¥38.08
|
14.63
|
39.09
|
16.83
|
46.35
|
29.86%
|
2.13%
| |||
| 万华化学 |
¥84.43
|
16.10%
|
12.40%
|
13.00%
|
¥2,650.89亿
|
15.68
|
1.26
|
¥168.28
|
49.83
|
-65.56
|
228.78
|
151.45
|
44.25%
|
1.88%
| |||
| 牧原股份 |
¥44.20
|
55.30%
|
69.00%
|
360.40%
|
¥2,415.68亿
|
24.29
|
0.35
|
¥56.88
|
22.29
|
1.79
|
-2,369.27
|
51.19
|
13.66%
|
1.66%
| |||
| 中国建筑 |
¥5.27
|
12.30%
|
8.20%
|
6.90%
|
¥2,193.37亿
|
4.02
|
0.40
|
¥27.24
|
80.65
|
-5.79
|
191.02
|
25.68
|
79.48%
|
4.66%
| |||
| 格力电器 |
¥38.87
|
13.50%
|
3.10%
|
-4.70%
|
¥2,188.93亿
|
8.17
|
2.50
|
¥96.58
|
59.75
|
83.40
|
53.39
|
85.77
|
54.68%
|
2.54%
| |||
| 海天味业 |
¥37.71
|
17.30%
|
13.40%
|
-10.40%
|
¥2,096.90亿
|
35.68
|
2.71
|
¥28.36
|
-32.97
|
15.72
|
-139.89
|
22.77
|
-65.61%
|
1.87%
| |||
| 国电南瑞 |
¥25.78
|
12.10%
|
11.70%
|
14.80%
|
¥2,070.86亿
|
29.70
|
2.45
|
¥15.57
|
-65.57
|
10.99
|
-134.58
|
25.26
|
-2.06%
|
1.50%
| |||
| 立讯精密 |
¥27.67
|
39.40%
|
46.00%
|
3.00%
|
¥1,986.16亿
|
19.62
|
0.37
|
¥50.66
|
45.38
|
7.99
|
-246.31
|
45.59
|
39.31%
|
0.49%
| |||
| 伊利股份 |
¥27.98
|
16.80%
|
12.40%
|
25.10%
|
¥1,781.23亿
|
16.56
|
1.27
|
¥38.42
|
27.17
|
17.67
|
-58.35
|
50.01
|
44.05%
|
3.72%
| |||
| 顺丰控股 |
¥35.09
|
31.10%
|
14.40%
|
-6.90%
|
¥1,717.73亿
|
20.64
|
1.41
|
¥54.03
|
35.05
|
33.71
|
-4.09
|
23.33
|
-50.41%
|
0.71%
| |||
| 北方华创 |
¥305.00
|
--
|
42.60%
|
58.50%
|
¥1,617.39亿
|
45.61
|
1.05
|
¥213.59
|
-42.80
|
-30.85
|
1,088.65
|
192.23
|
-58.66%
|
0.15%
| |||
| 京东方A |
¥4.28
|
1.40%
|
14.00%
|
6.80%
|
¥1,598.09亿
|
66.88
|
4.43
|
¥0.8
|
-435.00
|
2.85
|
-50.18
|
1.94
|
-120.62%
|
1.42%
| |||
| 汇川技术 |
¥59.18
|
26.50%
|
33.00%
|
20.60%
|
¥1,584.33亿
|
33.06
|
0.94
|
¥61.34
|
3.52
|
10.75
|
-450.51
|
28.67
|
-106.42%
|
0.59%
| |||
| 中国中铁 |
¥6.91
|
11.80%
|
10.60%
|
16.30%
|
¥1,576.20亿
|
5.35
|
0.38
|
¥26.9
|
74.31
|
-7.66
|
190.21
|
34.23
|
79.81%
|
2.81%
| |||
| 洋河股份 |
¥98.41
|
4.80%
|
4.20%
|
12.70%
|
¥1,482.49亿
|
14.10
|
3.26
|
¥83.01
|
-18.55
|
165.34
|
40.48
|
124.88
|
21.20%
|
3.87%
| |||
| 中国中免 |
¥72.29
|
22.30%
|
10.20%
|
-3.10%
|
¥1,481.51亿
|
22.28
|
2.04
|
¥108.81
|
33.56
|
201.25
|
64.08
|
97.93
|
26.18%
|
1.10%
| |||
| 阳光电源 |
¥95.20
|
35.60%
|
29.30%
|
356.60%
|
¥1,413.86亿
|
14.10
|
0.42
|
¥200.88
|
52.61
|
46.84
|
-103.25
|
180.79
|
47.34%
|
0.23%
| |||
| 隆基绿能 |
¥18.50
|
62.50%
|
32.70%
|
20.80%
|
¥1,401.94亿
|
9.11
|
0.22
|
¥81.13
|
77.20
|
16.13
|
-14.69
|
73.01
|
74.66%
|
2.11%
| |||
| 片仔癀 |
¥224.90
|
25.00%
|
21.00%
|
18.00%
|
¥1,356.86亿
|
45.16
|
2.14
|
¥156.41
|
-43.79
|
102.13
|
-120.21
|
140.77
|
-59.76%
|
0.55%
| |||
| 中际旭创 |
¥168.27
|
--
|
15.90%
|
104.60%
|
¥1,350.92亿
|
45.11
|
2.70
|
¥122.56
|
-37.30
|
-4.52
|
3,822.79
|
110.31
|
-52.54%
|
0.12%
| |||
| 上港集团 |
¥5.67
|
2.80%
|
6.70%
|
1.60%
|
¥1,320.21亿
|
9.98
|
1.43
|
¥10.03
|
43.47
|
2.89
|
-96.19
|
6.13
|
7.50%
|
2.42%
| |||
| 古井贡酒 |
¥261.99
|
19.40%
|
16.10%
|
53.60%
|
¥1,188.52亿
|
31.95
|
1.99
|
¥221.42
|
-18.32
|
37.50
|
-598.64
|
229.44
|
-14.19%
|
1.16%
| |||
| 福耀玻璃 |
¥45.28
|
5.30%
|
7.20%
|
31.70%
|
¥1,139.42亿
|
20.96
|
2.78
|
¥26.14
|
-73.22
|
14.40
|
-214.44
|
26.62
|
-70.10%
|
2.72%
| |||
| 爱尔眼科 |
¥11.96
|
31.50%
|
22.60%
|
12.20%
|
¥1,115.68亿
|
32.68
|
1.31
|
¥12.66
|
5.53
|
15.09
|
20.74
|
11.39
|
-5.00%
|
0.84%
| |||
| 荣盛石化 |
¥10.94
|
69.70%
|
50.70%
|
-102.70%
|
¥1,107.73亿
|
亏损
|
--
|
¥-6.78
|
261.36
|
-49.06
|
122.30
|
-6.10
|
279.34%
|
1.34%
| |||
| 龙源电力 |
¥18.01
|
9.20%
|
2.90%
|
0.50%
|
¥1,085.69亿
|
24.77
|
6.74
|
¥15.66
|
-15.01
|
-10.92
|
264.93
|
9.57
|
-88.19%
|
0.65%
| |||
| 中国铁建 |
¥8.60
|
10.10%
|
7.50%
|
6.90%
|
¥1,084.53亿
|
4.97
|
0.44
|
¥34.15
|
74.82
|
-10.76
|
179.93
|
34.82
|
75.30%
|
3.20%
| |||
| 科大讯飞 |
¥43.42
|
24.10%
|
16.30%
|
-50.50%
|
¥1,005.34亿
|
248.11
|
8.79
|
¥2.68
|
-1,520.15
|
-7.42
|
685.18
|
3.41
|
-1,173.31%
|
0.23%
| |||
| 云南白药 |
¥55.46
|
4.60%
|
1.80%
|
-18.20%
|
¥989.55亿
|
24.32
|
13.38
|
¥26.58
|
-108.65
|
38.76
|
-43.09
|
64.77
|
14.37%
|
2.72%
| |||
| 保利发展 |
¥8.00
|
11.40%
|
8.30%
|
-28.60%
|
¥957.64亿
|
7.92
|
0.73
|
¥25.2
|
68.25
|
41.72
|
80.82
|
38.69
|
79.32%
|
5.60%
| |||
| 双汇发展 |
¥27.43
|
4.30%
|
0.90%
|
-2.00%
|
¥950.36亿
|
19.66
|
20.21
|
¥18.08
|
-51.71
|
3.25
|
-744.00
|
27.39
|
-0.15%
|
6.30%
| |||
| 中国电建 |
¥5.11
|
7.80%
|
10.90%
|
3.60%
|
¥880.26亿
|
7.80
|
0.50
|
¥10.92
|
53.21
|
-34.99
|
114.60
|
9.83
|
48.02%
|
2.31%
| |||
| 万泰生物 |
¥64.64
|
41.80%
|
58.60%
|
-71.30%
|
¥819.77亿
|
65.29
|
0.85
|
¥40.53
|
-59.49
|
9.47
|
-582.58
|
13.47
|
-379.88%
|
1.53%
| |||
| 海大集团 |
¥49.23
|
22.30%
|
23.20%
|
36.80%
|
¥819.06亿
|
25.51
|
1.02
|
¥60.69
|
18.88
|
122.44
|
59.79
|
33.94
|
-45.05%
|
0.93%
| |||
| 三花智控 |
¥21.94
|
16.20%
|
14.70%
|
36.90%
|
¥818.94亿
|
25.81
|
1.96
|
¥21.97
|
0.14
|
1.51
|
-1,352.98
|
21.43
|
-2.38%
|
1.17%
|